A combination of factors such as taxation benefits and technological connectivity have enabled large numbers of people to migrate to certain states, especially during Covid. Enticed by low interest rates and low relative pricing, many bought houses. Now, with mortgage rates nearing highs not seen since 2000, how many of these people are locked into their purchase to avoid taking a loss on sale?

What happens when existing employers demand more office presence per week – do employers or employees move to accommodate? What services and amenities are now undersupplied in the context of these new households? Are these new owners going to stick around through unexpected insurance increases, longer distance from family and potentially destructive weather systems?  Finally, culturally what are the longer term impacts on the the nature of the places moved from and to?

We’re actively exploring this phenomenon and what it means beyond the residential market. Is this locking in another leg up for the Sunbelt more permanently or a point-in-time movement that reverses as reality sets in?